Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Peak Oil Production - What Does It Mean For Us?

By Roger Vanderlely

As the months pass there is more and more discussion about the looming Peak Oil crisis. This is the point at which global production is unable to keep up with demand. It has moved from the field of theoretical to a real situation that is about to have major worldwide global effects.

The economies of developed nations such as the United States, many European countries, Australia now China, have been built or are being built on fossil fuels. Coal, oil and natural gas have fuelled the development of production capacity and military strength, allowing those states to achieve a higher standard of living than previously known in the world.

This situation may soon be in for an overhaul. Unless renewable energy sources are developed in a serious fashion, those economies that rely mainly on fossil fuels, particularly oil will become unstable. So serious is this situation that the International Energy Agency is commencing a thorough study of the 400 major oil fields across the globe to assess the true status of the accessible reserves of oil.

The concerns of the IEA are resting on a firm foundation. The Saudi Government recently announced an increase in oil production of 300,000 barrels per day. This is far less than the US administration had been requesting. This has raised fears that the reason for this moderate change in production is because the Saudis cannot produce more than this amount. This casts doubt over not only their own oil fields, but over the reserves of the OPEC countries as a whole. Those reserves are not monitored by any external organization. Since the mid 1980s OPEC countries have abided by an agreement to sell quantities of oil based on the stated size of their reserves. Naturally this encourages these reserves to be over estimated, especially in the last decade with significantly higher and still rising oil prices.

If this is true then we could find ourselves at Peak Oil very soon, perhaps we have even passed it. The effect of declining oil production on the global economy will be immense. The global economy requires endless growth in order to sustain itself, as all developed economies do. Since one of the primary requirements for this growth is cheap fuel, limiting that fuel through resource shortages will have monumental effects. It does not take a great deal of imagination to envisage resource wars, extreme nationalism and global economic collapse emerging as a result.

There are two ways out of this immediate problem. The first is to employ nuclear energy to generate electricity. Despite a bad reputation the modern nuclear power industry is far safer to work in than its coal and oil fired counterparts, even considering spectacular disasters such as the Three Mile Island incident. The other solution is to go for all-out implementation of renewable energy for base load power generation.

The future of any nation that bases its energy supply on oil is bleak indeed. Whether we use nuclear power as an intermediate between fossil fuels and renewables, or go straight to clean energies there is a definite and immediate need for a change. There needs to be a major global investment in solar and wind power. These need to be made into the mainstream base load electricity supply, not merely as a decorative add-on to a fossil fuel powered energy source.

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